tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58020842011-04-21T13:10:53.506-07:00Economics and Other Random StuffLinks and comments to interesting stuff mainly about economics.Elliottnoreply@blogger.comBlogger371100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-54768203676944479712008-07-30T10:03:00.001-07:002008-07-30T10:07:29.556-07:00Democrats, Cancely your WaPo SubscriptionThere are about 300 Democratic members of Congress (House + Senate). Each one of them has numerous subscriptions to the WaPo for their office and their staff. I would guess that adding in committee offices, the DNC and other similarl places would raise that number to about 500. If each office could, on average, get 10 cancellations, this would be a 1% Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-62854335749757033092008-07-27T07:30:00.000-07:002008-07-27T07:33:14.478-07:00In The Dark Knight, the only characters that choose to be corrupted when given the choice are the police (and Harvey Dent) and the criminals. Ordinary citizens complain a lot, but never actually commit crimes.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-63076888170642628662008-05-28T09:52:00.001-07:002008-05-28T10:21:39.666-07:00So the miles driven by Americans in March 2008 dropped by 4.7% (vs. 12 months ago) and everyone is going ga-ga over the fact that people actually responded to the increase in price - a DROP OF 11 BILLION MILES. By my calculation, this shows that as gas went up about 35%, demand went down by less than 5%. Even if you don't take into account the recession (which for some reason is not official), Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-23617162031532951422007-07-11T11:26:00.000-07:002007-07-11T11:34:04.012-07:00Harry Potter Can't DieWhat would that do to the add-on sales and the movies yet to come out. Within 24 hours after the book is released (and possibly before that) everyone will know if Harry Potter is dead. I will return my pre-ordered book if he does. I agree with Professor Ray: The books were about Harry's development into a young man, Professor Ray said. "I think it would be very Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-30322269279665850942007-04-11T22:29:00.000-07:002007-04-11T22:42:14.698-07:00Kurt Vonnegut, RIP"If this ain't nice what is"That quote is one of the best antidotes I have found to the depressing conclusion that the world is populated by idiots. He used it in his commencement addresses. Go read all of them even the one he didn't write (the sunscreen speech) .Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-31958730203194921312007-04-05T13:12:00.000-07:002007-04-05T13:25:10.287-07:00You can't always get what you wantScarcity - Economics BasicsYou can't understand economics without believing in scarcity. It is the starting point for the whole allocation of resources question that underlies the discipline. If there was no scarcity then why bother worrying about how things get allocated? Since the whole premise of the study of economics is this denial of satiation, it has Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-11641163770922120952007-04-03T11:04:00.000-07:002007-04-03T11:15:40.251-07:00Online Gambling is More EfficientIf you like to gamble then online gambling is a better deal than your local bookie or travelling to a sportsbook. There is no doubt that the odds would likely end up better in online venues. So why did Congress ban online gambling in Fall, 2006. Hypocrisy may be the tribute vice pays to virtue, but Congresscritters take their tribute in campaign contributions fromElliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-23613144471844445062007-04-02T10:37:00.000-07:002007-04-02T10:46:35.249-07:00Supreme Court: Maybe there is something to this Global Warming ThingThe Supreme Court today suggested that the EPA ought to do some studies to figure out how what to do about greenhouse gasses instead of putting their fingers in their air and saying, "...nah, nah, nah, we can't hear you" to the scientists and policy makers who actually give a damn about improving people's lives. The irony of Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-55791163317413815472007-03-31T20:52:00.000-07:002007-03-31T20:56:59.741-07:00The 5 Dumbest Things Republicans Believe1. Bush is a good President. The corollary for "moderate" Republicans is that he is better than Gore or Kerry would have been.2. That the Earth is less than 6000 years old.3. Climate change is nothing to worry about.4. Torture is ok .5. That the Constitution shouldn't apply to Gitmo.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-84810974339891178952007-03-07T16:23:00.000-08:002007-03-07T16:28:37.670-08:00Don't Give Money to Your OppositionWhy do Congressional Democrats continue to take the Washington Post? Everything can be read online. This is probably between 1000 and 2000 subscriptions. In other words, not an insignificant chunk of their circulation. They should cancel their subscriptions now.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1168623428104183652007-01-12T09:18:00.000-08:002007-01-12T09:37:08.116-08:00Arnie's Healthcare PlanWell, it's hard to believe that Schwarzenegger has so turned himself around that he supports a healthcare proposal more sweeping than the one that he actively campaigned to kill several years ago. The only explanations I can come up with for this transformation is that:1. He's grown in his time in office and believes that universal healthcare is more important than when Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1168555492001784382007-01-11T14:40:00.000-08:002007-01-12T05:20:08.696-08:00Negotiating with Both Hands Tied Behind Your BackHow NOT to reduce Medicare prescription drug prices. Here is the actual text of Dingell's bill. It's hard to see how this is anything but posturing since no changes in any part of the bill except authorizing/requiring the Secretary of HHS to open negotiations. The problem with that is that the Secretary of HHS is on record as not wanting to Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1168460095061474502007-01-10T12:10:00.000-08:002007-01-10T12:14:55.073-08:00Wasting TimeI came out -1.38 which is left of center on economic issues and -3.90 on social issues. This is a UK quiz so an adjustment for the US probably puts me farther away from the center than these numbers indicate. I'm pretty happy that I'm in the same quadrant as , Ghandi, Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama and polar opposite of Bush.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1168458160777344842007-01-10T11:33:00.000-08:002007-01-12T05:22:56.846-08:00Who Knows Why?Rafael Robb was arrested for killing his wife. Every article makes a big deal about the fact that he was a game theory professor, but I doubt that any reasonable game theory solution (without some additional factor) would cause him to decide to commit the crime since he knew he would be the first suspect. It seems more likely that there was something besides avoiding a messy and Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1168017130483603842007-01-05T09:04:00.000-08:002007-01-05T09:12:10.506-08:00Nazi appoints Communist, Poland not HappyI know it's a cheap shot, but I'm not a big fan of the Pope and will never get a private audience so what the hey. I seriously don't understand what happened here. It looks like the Vatican secret files had the information that could have prevented this embarassment, but that they someone failed to do the proper legwork. Reminds me of Bernie Kerik's Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1167767176265403932007-01-02T11:44:00.000-08:002007-01-02T11:48:49.293-08:00Is it Worth It?Today there is no mail delivery because of Gerald Ford's funeral. It doesn't seem worth it to me. I'm pretty amazed that this is the only link I can find in google that gives the cost of a federal holiday. What's even more surprising is that it is part of a 3rd grade lesson plan. I love that they are teaching kids that young to think not only about the benefits (i.e. honoring Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1167677757509598572007-01-01T10:52:00.000-08:002007-01-01T11:08:28.606-08:00Universal HealthcareWell Krugman agrees with me even if Kevin does not. We cannot continue to spend more than 16% of GDP on substandard care. The amount the government is already spending (between 6-8% of GDP depending on how you count it) already exceeds what most countries spend to insure all their citizens.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1167628010880273832006-12-31T21:04:00.000-08:002006-12-31T21:08:22.356-08:00Just checking inLast year's New Years Resolution; the more blogging didn't work out so much. The recession didn't happen, but thank G-d, the midterms were disasterous for the Republicans because Iraq continues to drain the blood and treasure (not to mention our moral health) from the USA.Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1136409313264531562006-01-04T13:15:00.000-08:002006-01-04T13:15:13.276-08:00HAPPY NEW YEAR 2006One resolution is to blog more this year.Last year's New Year's post doesn't need much change., but I'll update. Maybe if I do this every January for 30 years this will seem substantial.1.Unemployment has dropped slightly, but real wages remain stagnant or falling (same as January 2005). Payroll numbers have not gone up very much and it's a mystery as to why so many have Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1126541817194631382005-09-12T09:07:00.000-07:002005-09-12T09:17:27.550-07:00NOT A LEADERThis post ("Here's what gets me") from thisisnotover perfectly describes the essence of how you know that Bush is at fault as both a President and a human being for the Katrina aftermath. A leader recognizes the urgency of true emergencies, yet Bush was on vacation all through Tuesday until it became politically untenable to continue. A leader has all hands on deck in a crisis, but Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1126224706348664532005-09-08T16:51:00.000-07:002005-09-08T17:11:46.356-07:00What will the Effect on GDP be for Katrina?From Adam Samwick: Significant but not Overwhelming So says the Congressional Budget Office in its preliminary report on the likely economic impact of Hurricane Katrina on economic growth. I'm not sure I can agree. I think that there will be three effects:1. The rise in energy prices is equivalent to at leastElliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1119379190792315652005-06-21T11:31:00.000-07:002005-06-21T11:39:50.800-07:00Healthcare CostsNo surprise, the healthcare system in this country lurches closer to the edge. We simply cannot go on devoting this much money to healthcare in the US (15% of GDP and rising). After hints that the rapid growth in health care spending was slowing, a report being released today suggests the brief reprieve has stalled and the soaring costs are likely to force more people out of Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1105134129233284612005-01-07T13:23:00.000-08:002005-01-07T22:28:59.240-08:00JOBS CREATION (Washington Post Edition)
The Post gets it totally wrong in one half of a sentence and gives a mulligan to John Snow in the other half. This article by Fred Barbash is very generous to the Bush Administration. "The total number of jobs created was 2.2 million for the year, a figure not wildly at odds with Bush administration's predictions that were ridiculed by critics during the Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1104780685208524182005-01-03T11:14:00.000-08:002005-01-03T11:31:25.206-08:00HAPPY NEW YEAR 2005
One resolution is to blog more this year.
Last year's New Year's post doesn't need much change.
1.Unemployment has dropped, but real wages remain stagnant or falling. Payroll numbers have not gone up very much and it's a mystery as to why so many have dropped out of the labor force. GDP appears to continue to grow at a 3-4% rate without producing new jobs.
2. The Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1073379633758938642004-01-06T00:51:00.000-08:002004-01-06T01:01:45.840-08:00From the Treasury Department website, the November report is out. I missed writing about it two weeks ago when it was actually published. The amazing thing is that expenditures dropped to 161.2 billion dollars. I really cannot understand how spending was cut back so dramatically from the average of about 180 billion dollars in fiscal 2003. The good news (if you can call a yearly deficit of Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1072977366890323032004-01-01T08:48:00.000-08:002004-01-01T09:17:14.153-08:00Happy New Year.
Economic stories that must be watched in 2004:
1. The jobless recovery. Can economic growth continue with unemployment relatively high and real wages barely budging for most.
2. The federal deficit. The largest deficit ever and it's mainly structural. Stein's Law applies. "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."
3. The value of the dollar. The recent surge Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1069098971221697562003-11-17T11:41:00.000-08:002003-11-17T11:57:41.530-08:00From the Treasury Department website, the October report is out and I can update my post from October 22. I underestimated the Adminisration. Expenditures were $205 billion. Receipts were 135 billion. The deficit starts out at $70 billion (69.545 billion to be exact). I don't know what to make of the increase in $10 billion in receipts from last October. If the trend continues through Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1068058531203164762003-11-05T10:43:00.000-08:002003-11-05T10:56:55.396-08:00How can productivity be rising so dramatically? I might be mssing something, but it seems to me that if you move jobs overseas paying dramatically less to produce goods and services AND consumption does not change, then productivity will increase significantly. Since it seems to me that this trend of exporting jobs will continue, I assume that productivity will continue to increase until a Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1066846390540866152003-10-22T10:58:00.003-07:002003-10-22T11:19:26.823-07:00If you go to the Treasury Department website, you'll see that satisfaction about the deficit being "only" 375 billion is probably overblown. Ignoring the fact that the on-budget deficit was actually 535 billion or that the trust fund surplus of 160 billion does not really cover the actuarial commitments. Instead take note of the following numbers (in billions):
Fiscal year/ Average MonthlyElliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1065731484288197992003-10-09T13:16:00.000-07:002003-10-09T13:33:34.183-07:00Courtesy of The Note, I was pointed to an article in the Christian Science Monitor featuring an interview with Josh Bolten. He predicted that the deficit would be better than the 455 billion originally predicted . This is an easy call since the Treasury Department has already calculated the deficit through 11 months as "only" 400.5 billion and September almost always has a surplus of receipts Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1064178994515883512003-09-21T14:12:00.000-07:002003-09-21T14:17:05.500-07:00Are they insane?
"Congressional negotiators are weighing House and Senate proposals to include dozens of tax breaks for industries in pending energy legislation, even though they could add as much as $19 billion to the federal budget deficit in the next decade."
The United States is facing the largest deficit ever both in absolute terms and relative to GDP, but the Republican Congress can't Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1064069713463041952003-09-20T07:45:00.000-07:002003-09-20T07:55:12.860-07:00The Washington Post reports on the effect of Hurricane Isabel. I have not seen any official damage estimates, but it obviously is in the billions. Also, the power outages, flooding, and cancellations means GDP will probably take a couple tenths of percentage hit this quarter. Since people will have to rebuild, subsequent quarters will be slightly inflated (destruction of capital stock does Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1063981812165624662003-09-19T07:25:00.000-07:002003-09-19T07:30:42.450-07:00Economic advisors ignored could have been the headline to this story on how steel tariffs are backfiring. In the middle of the story, you find out that all (or almost all) of the economic advisors were against this plan. In the end (and buried at the end of the article), their opposition didn't matter because they failed to rally support at what is described as a key meeting, but, given this Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1063903344226897212003-09-18T09:35:00.000-07:002003-09-18T09:42:23.786-07:00Leading Indicators are up for the fourth straight month according to the Conference Board. I think if you dig deeper, this news is not as good as it may first seem. The largest contributor to the increase was the interest rate spread (10 year rate minus fed funds). This spread has been climbing because of the massive budget deficit along with a loose monetary policy (real money supply is up Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1063524099140334882003-09-14T00:07:00.000-07:002003-09-14T00:21:39.166-07:00California legislature will require most businesses to offer health insurance to their employees. 80% of the cost will have to be paid by the employer. If I was a California health insurance broker, I would be gearing up to offer the highest deductible, highest copay, lowest benefit, and most restricted access policies imaginable. There is little chance that this will yield the intended resultElliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1063404095935069692003-09-12T15:01:00.000-07:002003-09-12T15:01:35.856-07:00The Washington Post reports that the Fed is unlikely to change interest rates and that inflation is under control http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62618-2003Sep11.html
I wonder if we aren't just exporting our inflation to China?
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-08/25/content_257820.htmElliottnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5802084.post-1063342677775525702003-09-11T21:57:00.000-07:002003-09-11T21:57:57.616-07:00Nothing really interesting to post yet. One thing to me that is always interesting is the disparity between the "official" unemployment rate and the alternative measures of unemployment. For example the unemployment rate for August as reported by the BLS is 6.1%. The alternative value also reported by the BLS is 10.0%. Which means that 1 in 10 workers would like a full time job, but cannot Elliottnoreply@blogger.com0